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Abstract Multi-year marine heatwaves (MHWs) in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) are major climate events with lasting ecological and economic effects. Though often seen as local Pacific phenomena, our study shows their persistence depends on trans-basin interactions between the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Using observational data and climate model experiments, we find that prolonged MHWs occur as sequential warming episodes triggered by atmospheric wave trains crossing ocean basins. These wave trains alter surface heat flux, initiating MHWs in the GOA and changing North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In turn, Atlantic SST anomalies reinforce wave activity, fueling subsequent MHW episodes in a feedback loop. This mechanism appears in historical events (1949–52, 1962–65, 2013–16, and 2018–22), highlighting MHWs as a trans-basin phenomenon. Our findings link GOA MHWs to trans-basin atmospheric wave dynamics and identify North Atlantic SSTs as a potential predictor of their duration. 

Abstract. Large-scale interaction between the three tropical ocean basins is an area of intense research that is often conducted through experimentation with numerical models. A common problem is that modeling groups use different experimental setups, which makes it difficult to compare results and delineate the role of model biases from differences in experimental setups. To address this issue, an experimental protocol for examining interaction between the tropical basins is introduced. The Tropical Basin Interaction Model Intercomparison Project (TBIMIP) consists of experiments in which sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed to follow observed values in selected basins. There are two types of experiments. One type, called standard pacemaker, consists of simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations in selected basins during a historical simulation. The other type, called pacemaker hindcast, consists of seasonal hindcast simulations in which SSTs are restored to observations during 12-month forecast periods. TBIMIP is coordinated by the Climate and Ocean – Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR) Research Focus on Tropical Basin Interaction. The datasets from the model simulations will be made available to the community to facilitate and stimulate research on tropical basin interaction and its role in seasonal-to-decadal variability and climate change. 

Abstract The increasing frequency of heatwaves over East Asia (EA) is impacting agriculture, water management, and people’s livelihood. However, the effect of humidity on high-temperature events has not yet been fully explored. Using observations and future climate change projections conducted with the latest generation of Earth System models, we examine the mechanisms of dry and moist heatwaves over EA. In the dry heatwave region, anticyclonic circulation has been amplified after the onset of heatwaves under the influence of the convergence of anomalous wave activity flux over northern EA, resulting in surface warming via adiabatic processes. In contrast, the moist heatwaves are triggered by the locally generated anticyclonic anomalies, with the surface warming amplified by cloud and water vapor feedback. Model simulations from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project projected display intensification of dry heatwaves and increased moist heatwave days in response to projected increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. 

Abstract Late Pleistocene changes in insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations, and ice sheets have different spatially and seasonally modulated climatic fingerprints. By exploring the seasonality of paleoclimate proxy data, we gain deeper insight into the drivers of climate changes. Here, we investigate changes in alkenone-based annual mean and Globigerinoides ruber Mg/Ca-based summer sea surface temperatures in the East China Sea and their linkages to climate forcing over the past 400,000 years. During interglacial-glacial cycles, there are phase differences between annual mean and seasonal (summer and winter) temperatures, which relate to seasonal insolation changes. These phase differences are most evident during interglacials. During glacial terminations, temperature changes were strongly affected by CO 2 . Early temperature minima, ~20,000 years before glacial terminations, except the last glacial period, coincide with the largest temperature differences between summer and winter, and with the timing of the lowest atmospheric CO 2 concentration. These findings imply the need to consider proxy seasonality and seasonal climate variability to estimate climate sensitivity. 

El Niño’s intensity change under anthropogenic warming is of great importance to society, yet current climate models’ projections remain largely uncertain. The current classification of El Niño does not distinguish the strong from the moderate El Niño events, making it difficult to project future change of El Niño’s intensity. Here we classify 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017 by cluster analysis of the onset and amplification processes, and the resultant 4 types of El Niño distinguish the strong from the moderate events and the onset from successive events. The 3 categories of El Niño onset exhibit distinct development mechanisms. We find El Niño onset regime has changed from eastern Pacific origin to western Pacific origin with more frequent occurrence of extreme events since the 1970s. This regime change is hypothesized to arise from a background warming in the western Pacific and the associated increased zonal and vertical sea-surface temperature (SST) gradients in the equatorial central Pacific, which reveals a controlling factor that could lead to increased extreme El Niño events in the future. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models’ projections demonstrate that both the frequency and intensity of the strong El Niño events will increase significantly if the projected central Pacific zonal SST gradients become enhanced. If the currently observed background changes continue under future anthropogenic forcing, more frequent strong El Niño events are anticipated. The models’ uncertainty in the projected equatorial zonal SST gradients, however, remains a major roadblock for faithful prediction of El Niño’s future changes.